PredicTri

Next-Gen Triangle Modeling with AI/ML

Finally, an AI-Powered Reserving Tool You Can Trust

Built by actuaries, for actuaries, to bring clarity and confidence to your results.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Reliable Results

Modern Bayesian ML provides a trustworthy second opinion on reserves.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Full Transparency

No black boxes. Get clear diagnostics and confidence intervals.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Model Validation

PredicTri tests multiple models and automatically selects the best one.

โšก And More...

Read about the PredicTri solution

๐Ÿ’ก Why PredicTri?

PredicTri is a cloud-based actuarial tool that brings Bayesian machine learning to triangle reserving.

In simple terms: we help insurers predict future claims costs more accurately and transparently, helping manage risk and allocate capital more effectively.

Designed for actuaries, PredicTri adds a second layer of insight and validation to your existing workflow, improving accuracy and explainability where it matters most.

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Accurate Results, Backed by Bayesian Inference

PredicTri delivers reliable results using advanced Bayesian modeling.

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Model Validation & Selection

PredicTri evaluates multiple models and automatically selects the best-performing one based on predictive power.

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Second Opinion / Peer Review

Use PredicTri as a second-opinion tool to review traditional results.

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Transparent Outputs

Transparent outputs with confidence intervals and model diagnostics โ€” no black box models.

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Regulatory Ready

Designed for accuracy, explainability, and regulatory support with full documentation.

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Small Portfolio Compatible

Compatible with small or volatile portfolios where traditional methods struggle.

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Workflow Enhancement

Enhances your existing workflow without replacing your models or professional judgment.

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Joint Modeling

Joint modeling of paid and incurred triangles for comprehensive analysis and improved accuracy.

๐Ÿ“„ What You'll Find Here:

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One-Pager

A concise overview of what PredicTri does and why it matters for actuaries. โžก๏ธ Download the One-Pager

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Case Study

See how PredicTri helped identify hidden patterns in a real-world portfolio. โžก๏ธ Read the Case Study

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Input & Output Instructions

Simple guidance on how to upload your triangle and understand the results. โžก๏ธ View Input/Output Instructions

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Video Walkthrough

A quick demo showing how to use PredicTri. โžก๏ธ Watch on YouTube

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Content Library

Comprehensive collection of articles, case studies, and insights on AI/ML in actuarial practice. โžก๏ธ Browse Content Library

๐Ÿš€ Want to Try PredicTri?

Get in touch with our team to request a trial and see how PredicTri can improve your actuarial workflow.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Join the Discussion

We're building a community of actuaries shaping the future of reserving. Connect with fellow professionals, share insights, and discuss the latest developments in AI/ML applications for actuarial science.

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About PredicTri

PredicTri is a software tool for non-life insurance reserving. It takes the same input data actuaries already use, paid and incurred claims triangles, and applies advanced Bayesian machine learning. The approach captures uncertainty, structural changes, and correlations that standard deterministic or stochastic triangle methods often miss. PredicTri provides actuaries with an explainable second opinion that can be directly compared with existing calculations, helping them validate assumptions and clearly explain results.

How It Works:

Modelling Flow

PredicTri Modelling Flow Diagram
  1. PredicTri starts with the input data: paid and/or incurred claims triangles together with premium or other exposure measures.
  2. Next, PredicTri runs the data through multiple Bayesian models.
  3. Each model is tested for how well it predicts unseen parts of the data, using a cross-validation method.
  4. The system selects the model with the strongest predictive power.
  5. Finally, the results are presented through clear reports and analytics that explain both the numbers and the drivers behind them.

Business Flow

PredicTri links technical reserving with business outcomes. You begin with your usual risk segmentation and exposure build-up, then model aggregate losses with PredicTri. This produces transparent reserves and capital requirements. Once the capital picture is clear, you can overlay pricing to evaluate profitability and strategic outcomes.

PredicTri Business Flow Diagram
  1. Define risk groups or exposure categories; some initial modeling can already be applied at this stage.
  2. Build portfolio aggregates.
  3. Model aggregate losses with PredicTri.
  4. Assess reserves and capital requirements.
  5. Overlay pricing to understand business outcomes.

Key Benefits:

  • Enhanced accuracy through Bayesian machine learning
  • Full transparency with confidence intervals and diagnostics
  • Regulatory compliance and explainable results
  • Seamless integration with existing workflows
  • Designed specifically for actuarial professionals

Thanks for your interest in PredicTri!

Please email us at info@predictri.com with a short note about your use case.

We'll be happy to provide trial access and help you get started.